Title: The Influence of the Real Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Main Commodities in Indonesia
Authors: Paskasius Kletus Aprila Severus
Item Type : Thesis (Thesis)
Affiliations: Master of Management Science Study Program, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Airlangga , Surabaya, Indonesia
Publisher: Universitas Airlangga
Abstract
One indicator of economic growth is macroeconomic conditions, including financial stability and exchange rates, production capacity and trade balance. Until now, the issue of the global crisis has always developed from time to time and is one of the factors that influences the stability of exchange rates and trade. The weakening of the exchange rate is a problem that must be addressed wisely because it will affect trade activities and people's standard of living. In general, this research aims to analyze the influence of exchange rates and manufacturing production activities on the trade balance in Indonesia. The period used in this research is monthly data for 15 years from 2003 to 2017. Because the data used is Time Series data, for short-term and long-term estimates this research uses ECM (Error Correction Model) estimates. The results show that the exchange rate and production activities do not have a significant influence on the trade balance and conversely, in the long term the exchange rate and production activities partially influence the trade balance in the long term for each commodity.
Keywords: Real Exchange Rate, Industrial Production Index, Trade Balance, Error Correction Model, Trade Stability
Sources: http://repository.unair.ac.id/97602/
