FEBNEWS – The publication of the 2025 State Budget (APBN) realization in early January sparked heated discussion among academics. The deficit figure, which reached 2.92 percent, became a major focus, as this figure represented a significant increase compared to the previous year's 2.30 percent.
Professor of the Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB) Universitas Airlangga, Prof. Dr. Wasiaturrahma, SE, M.Si., reviewed this phenomenon as a signal of the importance of recalibrating the direction of national fiscal policy amidst increasingly complex global economic dynamics.
In her incisive analysis published in Infobanknews , Prof. Rahma, as she is familiarly known, diagnosed the recent malaise of the state budget. She stated that the commodity "party" era is over. While in previous years the state budget was pampered by windfall profits from surging global commodity prices, 2025 will force the state to swallow the bitter pill of price normalization. State revenues were sharply corrected to Rp2,756.3 trillion, dragged down by the sluggish manufacturing and extractive sectors, which are no longer attractive in the global market. However, ironically, as the state purse strings dwindle, spending appetites become increasingly uncontrollable.
Prof. Rahma noted that the cabinet restructuring, which increased the number of ministries, logically resulted in increased operational costs for agencies. Furthermore, budget allocations for new strategic programs, such as the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG), also added to the burden of long-term mandatory spending . For Prof. Rahma, the main challenge lies not simply in the numbers, but in ensuring that every rupiah spent has a multiplier effect on productivity and job creation.
The situation becomes even more complicated when the government attempts to plug the leak by imposing a burden on the public. Prof. Rahma assessed the policy of increasing VAT to 12 percent starting in January 2025 as a double-edged sword. Rather than saving the budget, this policy actually hits the middle class hard. Purchasing power is eroded, consumption slows, and the VAT tax base is also depressed as people choose to tighten their belts. This phenomenon could be called a policy paradox. "They want to increase revenue, but they actually kill the main economic engine, namely household consumption.".
The impact of this budget centralization ultimately spread to the regions. Regional Transfers (TKD) decreased significantly to Rp849 trillion. Prof. Rahma revealed an increasingly top-down . Revenue Sharing Funds (DRFs) dwindled as taxes dwindled, while Special Allocation Funds (DAKs), the lifeblood of village infrastructure development, were also slashed to finance central government ambitions. As a result, regions were forced to "fast" on development, basic public services were threatened with stagnation, and local economies lost their vital stimulus.
Ultimately, Prof. Rahma concluded that the 2.92 percent deficit was a logical consequence of governance that violated the principles of efficiency. The increase in state spending, which exceeded revenue, was not solely driven by economic urgency, but rather by political desires lacking sound calculation. The 2025 State Budget, in this UNAIR Professor's critical view, is clear evidence of the high price the people must pay when public policies are formulated without regard for long-term fiscal sustainability.
FEB UNAIR appreciates the contribution of academic thought in enriching public literacy and encouraging data-based policy discussions. Read Prof. Rahma's full opinion via Infobanknews at the following link: https://infobanknews.com/kebijakan-fiskal-ugal-ugalan-apa-tidak-dipikirkan-dampaknya/amp/
Author: Sintya Alfafa