Title: Export Development Strategy for 4 Indonesian Plantation Commodities
Author: Erlambang Budi Darmanto
Universitas Airlangga
Item Type: Thesis (Dissertation)
Abstract
This study aims to (1) a. analyze the influence of total consumption, exchange rate, export goods price index, logistics performance index and ACFTA dummy on the export performance of coffee beans, natural rubber, cocoa beans and palm oil. b. analyze the priority weight of condition, competition, demand condition, related supporting industry factors as export development factors for 4 Indonesian plantation commodities. (2) formulate export development strategies for 4 Indonesian plantation commodities based on the highest priority weight of condition, competition, demand condition, related supporting industry factors. The analysis techniques used consist of two techniques, namely: (1) GMM analysis technique. (2) AHP analysis technique. The primary data of GMM analysis technique is obtained from the results of interviews with export business actors. Secondary data is obtained from the Research and Development Agency of the Department of Agribusiness, BI, BPS, World Bank, BIS, ITC, IMF. Primary data of AHP analysis is obtained from the results of key respondent questionnaires conducted in Beijing and Tianjin, China. Secondary data is obtained from BI, BPS and World Bank. The research results obtained are: (1) In coffee bean commodities, the total consumption variable, exchange rate and logistics performance index show a significant positive relationship. The export goods price index shows a negative relationship. The ACFTA dummy shows a positive relationship which means trade creation occurs. (2) In natural rubber commodities, the total consumption variable, export goods price index and logistics performance index show a negative relationship. The exchange rate shows a positive relationship. The ACFTA dummy shows a positive relationship which means trade creation occurs. (3) In cocoa bean commodities, the total consumption variable and exchange rate show a positive relationship. The export goods price index and logistics performance index show a negative relationship. The ACFTA dummy shows no relationship which means trade creation occurs. (4) In palm oil commodities, the total consumption variable and exchange rate show a negative relationship. The export goods price index and logistics performance index show a positive relationship. The ACFTA dummy shows a positive relationship which means trade creation occurs. (5) The demand condition factor has the highest priority weight in determining the export development strategy for 4 plantation commodities. (6) Determination of strategy based on demand condition factors, namely: a. export duty (TBK) implementation policy, b. creation of a conducive business climate, c. Government Cooperation with Research Institutions The recommendations given are: (1) the government and exporters need to take advantage of opportunities to meet the increase in consumption of destination countries. (2) the government needs to maintain exchange rate stability (3) exporters are able to determine competitive prices in accordance with international market commodity prices. (4) the government optimizes the improvement, equality and ease of infrastructure services in the port sector, customs administration services and customs systems (5) the government and exporters need to optimize the ACFTA agreement and carry out bilateral and multilateral cooperation with other market share countries such as Malaysia, America and Singapore (6) the government is able to create policies that can encourage demand condition factors.
Keywords: export development strategy, 4 Indonesian plantation commodities, GMM, AHP