Title: Analysis of International Tourism Demand in Indonesia
Author: Hilda Rohmawati
Student ID: 042014453001
Study Program: Master of Economics
Year of Publication: 2021
Abstract:
The number of tourist visits is currently experiencing a shock due to COVID-19. The decline in the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia due to COVID-19 still shows an unresolved trend, so an analysis is needed to restore the number of tourist visits. The recent recurrence of acts of terrorism and separatism in Indonesia has further exacerbated the situation, which is feared will further reduce the number of tourist visits. To anticipate the decline in the number of foreign tourist visits and accelerate the recovery of tourism demand, this study aims to analyze the factors influencing international tourism demand in Indonesia from the three countries of origin of tourists who visit Indonesia most frequently: Malaysia, Singapore, and China. This study uses time series data, namely the period 2007Q1 to 2019Q4, resulting in 52 observations using the Autoregressive Distributed-Lag (ARDL) estimation technique. The results of this study found that income, relative prices, and substitute prices are the main determinants of international tourism demand in Indonesia. In addition, Thailand is a complementary substitute country for Indonesian tourism. This study also shows that vigilance against IRG and disease outbreaks must always be carried out, and the VAT Refund policy has not yet shown a significant impact on international tourism demand in Indonesia.
Keywords: Tourism Demand, Geopolitical Risk Index, VAT Refund, ARDL
Read more: https://repository.unair.ac.id/109718/1/1.%20HALAMAN%20JUDUL.pdf