Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting   ISSN  1946-052X 
2015,  Vol.  7,  No.  1

Authors :

Muhammad Adnan1*, Sri Maemunah2, Fitri Ismiyanti2 & Rudi Purwono2

1 Faculty of Islamic Economic and Business The State Islamic University of Ar-Raniry Banda Aceh, Indonesia
2 Faculty of Economic and Business, Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia

Abstract :

This study is intended to analyze the influence of internal and external risk factors considered relevant  influencing  the  country  risk.  We  find  result  of  long  term  VECM  estimation indicating that the exchange rate, the interest rate of certificate of Bank Indonesia (SBI) for 6 months  and  the  world  economic  growth  have  positive  and  significant  influence  to  country risk.  Inflation,  Indonesia  economic  growth,  the  Fed,  and  MSCI  ACWI  IMI  return  have negative and significant influence to country risk. All hypotheses presented in this study are theoretically  and  statistically  accepted,  except  that  the  hypothesis  on  inflation  is  rejected because  it  is  in  controversy  with  theory,  although  statistically  it  has  significant  influence  to the country risk in Indonesia.
Meanwhile the estimated output of VECM in a short term, the exchange rate, the interest rate of SBI for 6 months and the world economic growth have positive and significant influence to country risk. The Fed and MSCI ACWI IMI return have negative and significant influence to country risk. The hypotheses testing accepted from the estimated VECM in short term are the exchange rate, the SBI interest rate in 6 months, the Fed, the world economic growth and the return of MSCI ACWI IMI.

Sources :

http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ajfa/article/view/6694/6344