IMPLEMENTATION OF OHLSON'S MODEL AS EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS OF CUSTOMERS WORKING CAPITAL CREDIT AT BRI

Amount: IMPLEMENTATION OF OHLSON'S MODEL AS EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS OF CUSTOMERS WORKING CAPITAL CREDIT AT BRI

Authors: Fida OKTAFIANI

Item Type: Thesis

Memberships: Master of Management Study Program, Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Airlangga Surabaya, Indonesia

Publisher: Airlangga University

Abstract

One of the valuable assets of a bank is a competent debtor, namely a borrower of funds who has the capability to return the funds in accordance with the specified amount and on time. BRI Surabaya Pahlawan Branch Office which provides services for providing credit facilities is very vulnerable to the potential for non-performing loans. Therefore, the symptoms of constipation must be detected early. Ohlson's model is a complementary alternative to the established credit risk rating. This study has two objectives, namely to find out whether Ohlson's model is able to predict the potential for bankruptcy of existing customers of working capital loans at BRI Pahlawan branch and to find out and analyze what variables can predict bankruptcy potential in the loan extension process at BRI Pahlawan branch. The sample used is working capital credit customers of BRI branch of Heroes taken by purposive sampling technique in the period 2008-2010. The variables used are 9 variables, namely SIZE, TLTA, WCTA, CLCA, OENEG, NITA. FUTL and INTWO. Data processing in this study using logistic regression analysis. The results showed that Ohlson's model was able to predict the potential for bankruptcy of existing working capital credit customers with an accuracy rate of 90% in model 1, 76.7% in model 2 and 71.7% in model 3. The significant variable in each model is SIZE.

Keywords: credit, financial distress, ohlson's model, logistic regression.

sources: http://repository.unair.ac.id/37179/